Are U.S. Military Interventions Contagious over Time? Intervention Timing and Its Implications for Force Planning

• Main Author: Kavanagh, Jennifer (auth)
• Format: Electronic Book Chapter
• Language: English
• Published: RAND Corporation 2013
• Subjects: Database design & theory; Defence strategy, planning & research; Probability & statistics; History; Statistics; Technology
• Online Access: DOAB: download the publication; DOAB: description of the publication

Current DoD force planning processes assume that U.S. military interventions are serially independent over time. This report challenges this assumption, arguing that interventions occur in temporally dependent clusters in which the likelihood of an intervention depends on interventions in the recent...