50th Anniversary of the Metaphorical Butterfly Effect since Lorenz (1972): Multistability, Multiscale Predictability, and Sensitivity in Numerical Models

• Other Authors: Shen, Bo-Wen (Editor), Pielke Sr., Roger (Editor), Zeng, Xubin (Editor)
• Format: Electronic Book Chapter
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute 2023
• Subjects: Research & information: general; Meteorology & climatology; Lorenz model; chaos; instability; saddle point; SDIC; sensitivities; finite predictability; ill-conditioned; El Niño; EOF; ISOMAP; La Niña; Niño 3.4; PCA; SST; quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF); typhoon; time-lagged ensemble; cloud-resolving model; categorical statistics; Philippines; predictability; predictions; Laplace's demon; butterfly effect; weather forecasts; MM5; Rayleigh-Bénard convection; data assimilation; observation placement; forecast sensitivity; chaotic regimes; low-order modeling; dual nature; generalized Lorenz model; multistability; tropical clouds; radiation; oscillations; ventilation effect; cloud resolving model; cloud dynamics; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; Zika toy model; numerical weather prediction (NWP); Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy (CFL) criterion; Purdue regional climate model (PRCM); convective available potential energy (CAPE); shallow water equations (SWE); Bernoulli function; dynamics system; forward-backward scheme; leapfrog scheme
• Online Access: DOAB: download the publication; DOAB: description of the publication

This year marks the 50th anniversary of the metaphorical butterfly effect, born from Edward Lorenz's 1963 work on initial condition sensitivity. In 1972, it became a metaphor for illustrating how minor changes could yield an organized system. •Lorenz Models: Chaos and Regime Changes: Explore Lorenz models' 1960-2008 evolution, chaos theory, and coexisting attractors. •Unraveling High-dimensional Instability: Challenge norms in "Butterfly Effect without Chaos?" as non-chaotic elements contribute uniquely. •Modeling Atmospheric Dynamics: Delve into atmospheric dynamics via "Storm Sensitivity Study." •Navigating Data Assimilation: Explore data assimilation's dance in chaotic and nonchaotic settings via the observability Gramian. •Chaos, Instability, Sensitivities: Explore chaos, instability, and sensitivities with Lorenz's 1963 and 1969 models. •Unraveling Tropical Mysteries: Investigate tropical atmospheric instability, uncovering oscillation origins and cloud-radiation interactions. •Chaos and Order: Enter atmospheric regimes, exploring attractor coexistence and predictability. •The Art of Prediction: Peer into predictability realms, tracing the "butterfly effect's" impact on predictions. •Navigating Typhoons: Journey through typhoons, exploring rainfall and typhoon trajectory prediction. •Analyzing Sea Surface Temperature: Examine sea surface temperature analysis and nonlinear analysis for classification.