The global dynamic transmissibility of COVID-19 and its influencing factors: an analysis of control measures from 176 countries

• Autores principales: Hongjian Wang (Autor), Yajia Lan (Autor)
• Formato: Libro
• Publicado: BMC, 2023-02-01T00:00:00Z.
• Materias: article
• Acceso en línea: Connect to this object online.

Sumario

Abstract Objective To summarise the dynamic characteristics of COVID-19 transmissibility; To analyse and quantify the effect of control measures on controlling the transmissibility of COVID-19; To predict and compare the effectiveness of different control measures. Methods We used the basic reproduction number ( $${R}_{0}$$ R 0 ) to measure the transmissibility of COVID-19, the transmissibility of COVID-19 and control measures of 176 countries and regions from January 1, 2020 to May 14, 2022 were included in the study. The dynamic characteristics of COVID-19 transmissibility were summarised through descriptive research and a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model was constructed to quantify the effect of control measures on controlling the transmissibility of COVID-19. Results The results show that the spatial transmissibility of COVID-19 is high in Asia, Europe and Africa, the temporal transmissibility of COVID-19 increases with the epidemic of Beta and Omicron strains. Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model shows that the transmissibility of COVID-19 is negatively correlated with control measures. Restricting population mobility has the strongest effect, nucleic acid testing (NAT) has a strong effect, and vaccination has the weakest effect. Conclusion Strict control measures are essential for controlling the COVID-19 outbreak; Restricting population mobility and nucleic acid testing (NAT) have significant impacts on controlling the COVID-19 transmissibility, while vaccination has no significant impact. In light of these findings, future control measures may include the widespread use of new NAT technology and the promotion of booster immunization.

Notas

10.1186/s12889-023-15174-0
1471-2458