How habitat factors affect an Aedes mosquitoes driven outbreak at temperate latitudes: The case of the Chikungunya virus in Italy.

• Main Authors: Angelo Solimini (Author), Chiara Virgillito (Author), Mattia Manica (Author), Piero Poletti (Author), Giorgio Guzzetta (Author), Giovanni Marini (Author), Roberto Rosà (Author), Federico Filipponi (Author), Paola Scognamiglio (Author), Francesco Vairo (Author), Beniamino Caputo (Author)
• Format: Book
• Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2023-08-01T00:00:00Z.
• Subjects: article
• Online Access: Connect to this object online.
• Notes: 1935-2727; 1935-2735; 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010655
• Keywords: Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine; RC955-962; Public aspects of medicine; RA1-1270
• Source: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 17, Iss 8, p e0010655 (2023)

<h4>Background</h4>Outbreaks of Aedes-borne diseases in temperate areas are not frequent, and limited in number of cases. We investigate the associations between habitat factors and temperature on individuals' risk of chikungunya (CHIKV) in a non-endemic area by spatially analyzing the data from the 2017 Italian outbreak.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>We adopted a case-control study design to analyze the association between land-cover variables, temperature, and human population density with CHIKV cases. The observational unit was the area, at different scales, surrounding the residence of each CHIKV notified case. The statistical analysis was conducted considering the whole dataset and separately for the resort town of Anzio and the metropolitan city of Rome, which were the two main foci of the outbreak. In Rome, a higher probability for the occurrence of CHIKV cases is associated with lower temperature (OR = 0.72; 95% CI: 0.61-0.85) and with cells with higher vegetation coverage and human population density (OR = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.00-1.05). In Anzio, CHIKV case occurrence was positively associated with human population density (OR = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.00-1.06) but not with habitat factors or temperature.<h4>Conclusion/significance</h4>Using temperature, human population density and vegetation coverage data as drives for CHIKV transmission, our estimates could be instrumental in assessing spatial heterogeneity in the risk of experiencing arboviral diseases in non-endemic temperate areas.