Modeling the Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases in Iran from 2005 to 2025: The Impact of Demographic Changes

• Main Authors: Masoumeh SADEGHI (Author), Ali Akbar HAGHDOOST (Author), Abbas BAHRAMPOUR (Author), Mohsen DEHGHANI (Author)
• Format: Book
• Published: Tehran University of Medical Sciences, 2017-04-01T00:00:00Z.
• Subjects: article
• Online Access: Connect to this object online.
• Notes: 2251-6085; 2251-6093
• Keywords: Cardiovascular diseases; Iran; Demographic changes; DALY; Modelling; Public aspects of medicine; RA1-1270
• Source: Iranian Journal of Public Health, Vol 46, Iss 4 (2017)

Background: Estimating the burden of non-communicable diseases particularly cardiovascular disease (CVD) is essential for health management and policymaking. In this paper, we used a regression model to estimate the future impact of demographic changes on the burden of CVD in Iran during the next two decades. Methods: Disability-adjusted life years (DALY) were used to estimate the future burden of CVD in Iran. A regression model was used to estimate DALY caused by CVD in the Iranian population aged 30-100 yr, stratified by age group and sex. The predicted population of Iranians aged ≥ 30 yr was entered into the model and DALY were calculated over 2005-2025. To assess the areas of uncertainty in the model, we did sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation. Results: In the year 2005, there were 847309 DALYs caused by CVD in Iranian adults aged ≥ 30 yr. This figure will nearly be 1728836 DALYs in 2025. In other words, just because of the aging, DALY related to CVD will increase more than two-fold in 2025 compared with 2005. The burden of CVD was higher in men (443235) than in women (404235) in 2005; but in 2025, the difference will be less (867639 vs. 861319). Conclusion: The burden of CVD will increase steeply in Iran over 2005-2025, mainly because of the aging population. Therefore, more attention is needed to deal with the impact of CVD in the following decades in Iran.