Spatial Variation in Excess Mortality Across Europe: A Cross-Sectional Study of 561 Regions in 21 Countries
Abstract Objective To measure the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 at the subnational level by estimating excess mortality, defined as the increase in all-cause mortality relative to an expected baseline mortality level. Methods Statistical and demographic analyses of regional all-cause morta...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Book |
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Springer,
2024-02-01T00:00:00Z.
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| Summary: | Abstract Objective To measure the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 at the subnational level by estimating excess mortality, defined as the increase in all-cause mortality relative to an expected baseline mortality level. Methods Statistical and demographic analyses of regional all-cause mortality data provided by the vital statistics systems of 21 European countries for 561 regions in Central and Western Europe. Life expectancy losses at ages 0 and 60 for males and females were estimated. Results We found evidence of a loss in life expectancy in 391 regions, whilst only three regions exhibit notable gains in life expectancy in 2020. For 12 regions, losses of life expectancy amounted to more than 2 years and three regions showed losses greater than 3 years. We highlight geographical clusters of high mortality in Northern Italy, Spain and Poland, whilst clusters of low mortality were found in Western France, Germany/Denmark and Norway/Sweden. Conclusions Regional differences of loss of life expectancy are impressive, ranging from a loss of more than 4 years to a gain of 8 months. These findings provide a strong rationale for regional analysis, as national estimates hide significant regional disparities. |
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| Item Description: | 10.1007/s44197-024-00200-0 2210-6014 |