A Chess and Card Room-Induced COVID-19 Outbreak and Its Agent-Based Simulation in Yangzhou, China

• Main Authors: Shijing Shen (Author), Wenning Li (Author), Hua Wei (Author), Lin Zhao (Author), Runze Ye (Author), Ke Ma (Author), Peng Xiao (Author), Na Jia (Author), Jieping Zhou (Author), Xiaoming Cui (Author), Jianhua Gong (Author), Wuchun Cao (Author)
• Format: Book
• Published: Frontiers Media S.A., 2022-06-01T00:00:00Z.
• Subjects: article
• Online Access: Connect to this object online.

Summary

ObjectiveTo evaluate epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak that resurged in Yangzhou and to simulate the impact of different control measures at different regional scales.MethodsWe collected personal information from 570 laboratory-confirmed cases in Yangzhou from 28 July to 26 August 2021, and built a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model and an agent-based model.ResultsThe SEIR model showed that for passengers from medium-high risk areas, pre-travel nucleic acid testing within 3 days could limit the total number of infected people in Yangzhou to 50; among elderly persons, a 60% increase in vaccination rates could reduce the estimated infections by 253. The agent-based model showed that when the population density of the chess and card room dropped by 40%, the number of infected people would decrease by 54 within 7 days. A ventilation increase in the chess and card room from 25 to 50% could reduce the total number of infections by 33 within 7 days; increasing the ventilation from 25 to 75% could reduce the total number of infections by 63 within 7 days.ConclusionsThe SEIR model and agent-based model were used to simulate the impact of different control measures at different regional scales successfully. It is possible to provide references for epidemic prevention and control work.

Item Description

2296-2565
10.3389/fpubh.2022.915716