Assessing the mechanism of citywide test-trace-isolate Zero-COVID policy and exit strategy of COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract Background Countries that aimed for eliminating the cases of COVID-19 with test-trace-isolate policy are found to have lower infections, deaths, and better economic performance, compared with those that opted for other mitigation strategies. However, the continuous evolution of new strains...

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Main Authors: Pei Yuan (Author), Yi Tan (Author), Liu Yang (Author), Elena Aruffo (Author), Nicholas H. Ogden (Author), Guojing Yang (Author), Haixia Lu (Author), Zhigui Lin (Author), Weichuan Lin (Author), Wenjun Ma (Author), Meng Fan (Author), Kaifa Wang (Author), Jianhe Shen (Author), Tianmu Chen (Author), Huaiping Zhu (Author)
Format: Book
Published: BMC, 2022-10-01T00:00:00Z.
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042 |a dc 
100 1 0 |a Pei Yuan  |e author 
700 1 0 |a Yi Tan  |e author 
700 1 0 |a Liu Yang  |e author 
700 1 0 |a Elena Aruffo  |e author 
700 1 0 |a Nicholas H. Ogden  |e author 
700 1 0 |a Guojing Yang  |e author 
700 1 0 |a Haixia Lu  |e author 
700 1 0 |a Zhigui Lin  |e author 
700 1 0 |a Weichuan Lin  |e author 
700 1 0 |a Wenjun Ma  |e author 
700 1 0 |a Meng Fan  |e author 
700 1 0 |a Kaifa Wang  |e author 
700 1 0 |a Jianhe Shen  |e author 
700 1 0 |a Tianmu Chen  |e author 
700 1 0 |a Huaiping Zhu  |e author 
245 0 0 |a Assessing the mechanism of citywide test-trace-isolate Zero-COVID policy and exit strategy of COVID-19 pandemic 
260 |b BMC,   |c 2022-10-01T00:00:00Z. 
500 |a 10.1186/s40249-022-01030-7 
500 |a 2049-9957 
520 |a Abstract Background Countries that aimed for eliminating the cases of COVID-19 with test-trace-isolate policy are found to have lower infections, deaths, and better economic performance, compared with those that opted for other mitigation strategies. However, the continuous evolution of new strains has raised the question of whether COVID-19 eradication is still possible given the limited public health response capacity and fatigue of the epidemic. We aim to investigate the mechanism of the Zero-COVID policy on outbreak containment, and to explore the possibility of eradication of Omicron transmission using the citywide test-trace-isolate (CTTI) strategy. Methods We develop a compartmental model incorporating the CTTI Zero-COVID policy to understand how it contributes to the SARS-CoV-2 elimination. We employ our model to mimic the Delta outbreak in Fujian Province, China, from September 10 to October 9, 2021, and the Omicron outbreak in Jilin Province, China for the period from March 1 to April 1, 2022. Projections and sensitivity analyses were conducted using dynamical system and Latin Hypercube Sampling/ Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC). Results Calibration results of the model estimate the Fujian Delta outbreak can end in 30 (95% confidence interval CI: 28-33) days, after 10 (95% CI: 9-11) rounds of citywide testing. The emerging Jilin Omicron outbreak may achieve zero COVID cases in 50 (95% CI: 41-57) days if supported with sufficient public health resources and population compliance, which shows the effectiveness of the CTTI Zero-COVID policy. Conclusions The CTTI policy shows the capacity for the eradication of the Delta outbreaks and also the Omicron outbreaks. Nonetheless, the implementation of radical CTTI is challenging, which requires routine monitoring for early detection, adequate testing capacity, efficient contact tracing, and high isolation compliance, which constrain its benefits in regions with limited resources. Moreover, these challenges become even more acute in the face of more contagious variants with a high proportion of asymptomatic cases. Hence, in regions where CTTI is not possible, personal protection, public health control measures, and vaccination are indispensable for mitigating and exiting the COVID-19 pandemic. Graphical Abstract 
546 |a EN 
690 |a COVID-19 
690 |a Transmission model 
690 |a Zero-COVID policy 
690 |a Citywide testing 
690 |a Test-trace-isolate 
690 |a Exit strategy 
690 |a Infectious and parasitic diseases 
690 |a RC109-216 
690 |a Public aspects of medicine 
690 |a RA1-1270 
655 7 |a article  |2 local 
786 0 |n Infectious Diseases of Poverty, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-18 (2022) 
787 0 |n https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-022-01030-7 
787 0 |n https://doaj.org/toc/2049-9957 
856 4 1 |u https://doaj.org/article/3cf89969befa49fb8da65a89bb21c930  |z Connect to this object online.