Treating childhood pneumonia in hard-to-reach areas: A model-based comparison of mobile clinics and community-based care

• Main Authors: Pitt Catherine (Author), Roberts Bayard (Author), Checchi Francesco (Author)
• Format: Book
• Published: BMC, 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z.
• Subjects: article
• Online Access: Connect to this object online.

Summary

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Where hard-to-access populations (such as those living in insecure areas) lack access to basic health services, relief agencies, donors, and ministries of health face a dilemma in selecting the most effective intervention strategy. This paper uses a decision mathematical model to estimate the relative effectiveness of two alternative strategies, mobile clinics and fixed community-based health services, for antibiotic treatment of childhood pneumonia, the world's leading cause of child mortality.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A "Markov cycle tree" cohort model was developed in Excel with Visual Basic to compare the number of deaths from pneumonia in children aged 1 to 59 months expected under three scenarios: 1) No curative services available, 2) Curative services provided by a highly-skilled but intermittent mobile clinic, and 3) Curative services provided by a low-skilled community health post. Parameter values were informed by literature and expert interviews. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted for several plausible scenarios.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We estimated median pneumonia-specific under-5 mortality rates of 0.51 (95% credible interval: 0.49 to 0.541) deaths per 10,000 child-days without treatment, 0.45 (95% CI: 0.43 to 0.48) with weekly mobile clinics, and 0.31 (95% CI: 0.29 to 0.32) with CHWs in fixed health posts. Sensitivity analyses found the fixed strategy superior, except when mobile clinics visited communities daily, where rates of care-seeking were substantially higher at mobile clinics than fixed posts, or where several variables simultaneously differed substantially from our baseline assumptions.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Current evidence does not support the hypothesis that mobile clinics are more effective than CHWs. A CHW strategy therefore warrants consideration in high-mortality, hard-to-access areas. Uncertainty remains, and parameter values may vary across contexts, but the model allows preliminary findings to be updated as new or context-specific evidence becomes available. Decision analytic modelling can guide needed field-based research efforts in hard-to-access areas and offer evidence-based insights for decision-makers.</p>

Item Description

10.1186/1472-6963-12-9
1472-6963