The Burden of Typhoid and Paratyphoid in India: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

• Main Authors: Jacob John (Author), Carola J C Van Aart (Author), Nicholas C Grassly (Author)
• Format: Book
• Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2016-04-01T00:00:00Z.
• Subjects: article
• Online Access: Connect to this object online.
• Notes: 1935-2727; 1935-2735; 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004616
• Keywords: Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine; RC955-962; Public aspects of medicine; RA1-1270
• Source: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 10, Iss 4, p e0004616 (2016)

BACKGROUND:Typhoid is an important public health challenge for India, especially with the spread of antimicrobial resistance. The decision about whether to introduce a public vaccination programme needs to be based on an understanding of disease burden and the age-groups and geographic areas at risk. METHODS:We searched Medline and Web of Science databases for studies reporting the incidence or prevalence of typhoid and paratyphoid fever confirmed by culture and/or serology, conducted in India and published between 1950 and 2015. We used binomial and Poisson mixed-effects meta-regression models to estimate prevalence and incidence from hospital and community studies, and to identify risk-factors. RESULTS:We identified 791 titles and abstracts, and included 37 studies of typhoid and 18 studies of paratyphoid in the systematic review and meta-analysis. The estimated prevalence of laboratory-confirmed typhoid and paratyphoid among individuals with fever across all hospital studies was 9.7% (95% CI: 5.7-16.0%) and 0.9% (0.5-1.7%) respectively. There was significant heterogeneity among studies (p-values<0.001). Typhoid was more likely to be detected among clinically suspected cases or during outbreaks and showed a significant decline in prevalence over time (odds ratio for each yearly increase in study date was 0.96 (0.92-0.99) in the multivariate meta-regression model). Paratyphoid did not show any trend over time and there was no clear association with risk-factors. Incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid was reported in 3 and 2 community cohort studies respectively (in Kolkata and Delhi, or Kolkata alone). Pooled estimates of incidence were 377 (178-801) and 105 (74-148) per 100,000 person years respectively, with significant heterogeneity between locations for typhoid (p<0.001). Children 2-4 years old had the highest incidence. CONCLUSIONS:Typhoid remains a significant burden in India, particularly among young children, despite apparent declines in prevalence. Infant immunisation with newly-licensed conjugate vaccines could address this challenge.