Forecasting COVID-19 situation in Bangladesh

• Main Authors: Mossamet Kamrun Nesa (Author), Md. Rashed Babu (Author), Mohammad Tareq Mamun Khan (Author)
• Format: Book
• Published: Elsevier, 2022-02-01T00:00:00Z.
• Subjects: article
• Online Access: Connect to this object online.
• Notes: 2590-0536; 10.1016/j.bsheal.2021.12.003
• Keywords: COVID-19; ARIMA model; Forecast; Confirmed cases; Deaths; Recoveries; Infectious and parasitic diseases; RC109-216; Public aspects of medicine; RA1-1270
• Source: Biosafety and Health, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 6-10 (2022)

Forecasting the COVID-19 confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries demands time to know the severity of the novel coronavirus. This research aims to predict all types of COVID-19 cases (verified people, deaths, and recoveries) from the deadliest 3rd wave data of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh. We used the official website of the Directorate General of Health Services as our data source. To identify and predict the upcoming trends of the COVID-19 situation of Bangladesh, we fit the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model on the data from Mar. 01, 2021 to Jul. 31, 2021. The finding of the ARIMA model (forecast model) reveals that infected, deaths, and recoveries number will have experienced exponential growth in Bangladesh to October 2021. Our model reports that confirmed cases and deaths will escalate by four times, and the recoveries will improve by five times at a later point in October 2021 if the trend of the three scenarios of COVID-19 from March to July lasts. The prediction of the COVID-19 scenario for the next three months is very frightening in Bangladesh, so the strategic planner and field-level personnel need to search for suitable policies and strategies and adopt these for controlling the mass transmission of the virus.