Merits and demerits of selective isolation of superspreaders: A mathematical modeling study based upon West Bengal (India) SARS-COV 2 data

• Main Authors: Sourodip Ghoshdastidar (Author), Kamalesh Sarkar (Author), Biswajit Ghoshdastidar (Author)
• Format: Book
• Published: Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications, 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z.
• Subjects: article
• Online Access: Connect to this object online.
• Notes: 0970-0218; 1998-3581; 10.4103/ijcm.IJCM_817_20
• Keywords: coronavirus disease 2019; mathematical modeling; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; superspreader; viral load; Public aspects of medicine; RA1-1270
• Source: Indian Journal of Community Medicine, Vol 46, Iss 3, Pp 515-519 (2021)

Context: All COVID cases and their contacts are considered highly infectious requiring isolation, which blocks the COVID isolation beds and disrupts life in the community. Aim: To find out the effect of selective isolation and contact tracing of superspreaders as compared with the conventional ongoing protocol. Settings and Design: A mathematical model was designed to look at the effect of isolation and contact tracing of only those with high viral loads (superspreaders) on COVID-19 bed occupancy and overall mortality, in comparison with conventional protocol of isolation and contact tracing of all cases. Materials and Methods: An agent-based model, calibrated to the ongoing West Bengal COVID-19 data, was run for a total of 178 days to find out the effect of the interventions on COVID-19 bed occupancy and mortality. Results: There is an impressive reduction in the occupancy of COVID isolation beds, even with the preintervention testing rate with no negative impact on mortality. Conclusions: Strict isolation of superspreaders only, maybe highly effective in reducing the burden on health care and solving the COVID isolation bed crises if the testing rate is significantly increased.