Estimation of single-dose varicella vaccine effectiveness in South Korea using mathematical modeling
In South Korea, despite the implementation of a universal single-dose vaccination program for children aged 12-15 months in 2005, the varicella incidence rate remains significant. Prior case-control studies have reported that currently used varicella vaccines are extremely inefficacious. We estimate...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Book |
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Taylor & Francis Group,
2022-11-01T00:00:00Z.
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| Summary: | In South Korea, despite the implementation of a universal single-dose vaccination program for children aged 12-15 months in 2005, the varicella incidence rate remains significant. Prior case-control studies have reported that currently used varicella vaccines are extremely inefficacious. We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) by fitting a dynamic transmission model to age-specific varicella incidence data from 2007 to 2015 and available vaccine coverage data. The initial vaccine efficacy and primary failure rates were estimated to be 61.1% and 38.9%, respectively. The average duration of protection was 21.4 years. The mean VE [(1-relative risk) %] for the simulated data of 2004-2014 birth cohorts decreased from 59.8% to 50.7% over 9 years. This mathematical modeling study demonstrated that the single-dose vaccine exhibits moderate effectiveness, and a high proportion of primary failure could be a main cause of breakthrough infections. Therefore, a two-dose vaccination strategy should be considered. |
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| Item Description: | 2164-5515 2164-554X 10.1080/21645515.2022.2085468 |