Estimating the Lifetime and Age-Conditional Risk of an HIV Diagnosis in Iran, 2011-2015

Background: According to the importance of infectious diseases, especially HIV, the purpose of this study was to estimate lifetime and age-conditional risks of HIV diagnosis in Iran. Methods: We used vital statistics, HIV surveillance and census data for 2011-2015 to calculate Age-specific HIV diagno...

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Main Authors: Maryam Nasirian (Author), Marzieh Mahboobi (Author), Mohammad Reza Maracy (Author)
Format: Book
Published: Tehran University of Medical Sciences, 2021-04-01T00:00:00Z.
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001 doaj_c25ab6153cf749b4a6b12f15c6971b3b
042 |a dc 
100 1 0 |a Maryam Nasirian  |e author 
700 1 0 |a Marzieh Mahboobi  |e author 
700 1 0 |a Mohammad Reza Maracy  |e author 
245 0 0 |a Estimating the Lifetime and Age-Conditional Risk of an HIV Diagnosis in Iran, 2011-2015 
260 |b Tehran University of Medical Sciences,   |c 2021-04-01T00:00:00Z. 
500 |a 10.18502/ijph.v50i5.6122 
500 |a 2251-6085 
500 |a 2251-6093 
520 |a Background: According to the importance of infectious diseases, especially HIV, the purpose of this study was to estimate lifetime and age-conditional risks of HIV diagnosis in Iran. Methods: We used vital statistics, HIV surveillance and census data for 2011-2015 to calculate Age-specific HIV diagnosis and non-HIV death rates. These rates then converted to the probability of an HIV diagnosis considering the competing risk. Finally, the probabilities were applied to a hypothetical cohort of 10 million live births. The lifetime and age-conditional risk of HIV diagnosis in the total and general population of Iran were calculated by Dev Can software (version 6.7.4). Results: Lifetime risk was 0.084% (95% CI: 0.081-0.088) or one in 1183 for females and 0.21% (95% CI: 0.201- 0.211) or one in 483 for males in the total population. In the general population lifetime risk for men was 0.069% (95% CI: 0.066-0.072) or 1 in 1454 men and 0.066% (95%CI: 0.063-0.069) or one in 1523 for women. In the total and general population, the 10-yr age-conditional risk of HIV diagnosis showed that the highest risk of an HIV diagnosis is related to 30-yr -olds. Conclusion: The estimated risks differed based on gender, age, and type of population. Paying close attention to these differences is critical for infection control planning and policies. 
546 |a EN 
690 |a Lifetime risk 
690 |a Age-conditional risk 
690 |a HIV 
690 |a Population 
690 |a Iran 
690 |a Public aspects of medicine 
690 |a RA1-1270 
655 7 |a article  |2 local 
786 0 |n Iranian Journal of Public Health, Vol 50, Iss 5 (2021) 
787 0 |n https://ijph.tums.ac.ir/index.php/ijph/article/view/16319 
787 0 |n https://doaj.org/toc/2251-6085 
787 0 |n https://doaj.org/toc/2251-6093 
856 4 1 |u https://doaj.org/article/c25ab6153cf749b4a6b12f15c6971b3b  |z Connect to this object online.