Nationwide Geospatial Analysis to Identify Variations in Primary Cardiovascular Risk in Ethiopia

• Main Authors: Yihun Mulugeta Alemu (Author), Nasser Bagheri (Author), Kinley Wangdi (Author), Dan Chateau (Author)
• Format: Book
• Published: SAGE Publishing, 2024-10-01T00:00:00Z.
• Subjects: article
• Online Access: Connect to this object online.
• Notes: 2150-1327; 10.1177/21501319241288312
• Keywords: Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics; R858-859.7; Public aspects of medicine; RA1-1270
• Source: Journal of Primary Care & Community Health, Vol 15 (2024)

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) varies across regions due to socioeconomic, cultural, lifestyle, healthcare access, and environmental factors. Objective: To find geographical variations in 10-year primary CVD risk and assess the impact of contextual factors on CVD risk. Method: Data from 2658 Ethiopians aged 40 to 69 years with no previous CVD who participated in a nationally representative World Health Organization (WHO) STEPS survey in 2015 were included in the analysis. The mean 10-year CVD risk for 450 enumeration areas (EA) was used to identify spatial autocorrelation (using Global Moran's I ) and CVD hot spots (using getas-Ord Gi*). Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) analysis quantified the relationship between mean 10-year CVD risk and climate-related factors across areas. Result: The spatial autocorrelation analysis identified significant spatial variation in the 10-year CVD risk at the EA level, with a global Moran's I value of 0.016. Statistically significant hot spot areas with 10-year CVD risk were identified in Addis Ababa (the capital), Benishangul Gumuz, SNNPR (Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples' Region), Amhara, Afar, Oromia, and Hareri regions. In a multivariable GWR analysis, average water vapor pressure was a statistically significant explanatory variable for the geographical variations in 10-year CVD risk. Conclusion: Hot spot areas for 10-year CVD risk were identified across numerous country regions rather than concentrated in a specific region. Alongside these hot spot areas, regions with a higher annual water vapor pressure (humidity) were identified as geographical targets for CVD prevention.