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Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in nine fields of activity to decrease SARS-CoV-2 transmission (Spain, September 2020-May 2021)

BackgroundWe estimated the association between the level of restriction in nine different fields of activity and SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility in Spain, from 15 September 2020 to 9 May 2021.MethodsA stringency index (0-1) was created for each Spanish province (n = 50) daily. A hierarchical multiplicat...

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Main Authors: Inés Barbeito (Author), Daniel Precioso (Author), María José Sierra (Author), Susana Vegas-Azcárate (Author), Sonia Fernández Balbuena (Author), Begoña Vitoriano (Author), David Goméz-Ullate (Author), Ricardo Cao (Author), Susana Monge (Author), the Study Group for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in Spain (Author)
Format: Book
Published: Frontiers Media S.A., 2023-04-01T00:00:00Z.
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Summary:BackgroundWe estimated the association between the level of restriction in nine different fields of activity and SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility in Spain, from 15 September 2020 to 9 May 2021.MethodsA stringency index (0-1) was created for each Spanish province (n = 50) daily. A hierarchical multiplicative model was fitted. The median of coefficients across provinces (95% bootstrap confidence intervals) quantified the effect of increasing one standard deviation in the stringency index over the logarithmic return of the weekly percentage variation of the 7-days SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence, lagged 12 days.ResultsOverall, increasing restrictions reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmission by 22% (RR = 0.78; one-sided 95%CI: 0, 0.82) in 1 week, with highest effects for culture and leisure 14% (0.86; 0, 0.98), social distancing 13% (0.87; 0, 0.95), indoor restaurants 10% (0.90; 0, 0.95) and indoor sports 6% (0.94; 0, 0.98). In a reduced model with seven fields, culture and leisure no longer had a significant effect while ceremonies decreased transmission by 5% (0.95; 0, 0.96). Models R2 was around 70%.ConclusionIncreased restrictions decreased COVID-19 transmission. Limitations include remaining collinearity between fields, and somewhat artificial quantification of qualitative restrictions, so the exact attribution of the effect to specific areas must be done with caution.
Item Description:2296-2565
10.3389/fpubh.2023.1061331

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