Influence of population mobility on the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic: based on panel data from Hubei, China
Abstract Background The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first reported in Wuhan, China. The mass population mobility in China during the Spring Festival has been considered a driver to the transmission of COVID-19, but it still needs more empirical discussion. Methods Based on the panel dat...
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Book |
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BMC,
2020-06-01T00:00:00Z.
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| Summary: | Abstract Background The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first reported in Wuhan, China. The mass population mobility in China during the Spring Festival has been considered a driver to the transmission of COVID-19, but it still needs more empirical discussion. Methods Based on the panel data from Hubei, China between January 6th and February 6th, 2020, a random effects model was used to estimate the impact of population mobility on the transmission of COVID-19. Stata version 12.0 was used, and p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results The COVID-19 was more likely to be confirmed within 11-12 days after people moved from Wuhan to 16 other prefecture-level cities in Hubei Province, which suggests a period of 11-12 days from contact to being confirmed. The daily confirmed cases and daily increment in incidence in 16 prefecture-level cities show obvious declines 9-12 days post adaptation of city lockdown at the local level. Conclusion Population mobility is found to be a driver to the rapid transmission of COVID-19, and the lockdown intervention in local prefecture-level cities of Hubei Province has been an effective strategy to block the COVID-19 epidemic. |
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| Item Description: | 10.1186/s41256-020-00151-6 2397-0642 |