Developments in Demographic Forecasting

• Other Authors: Mazzuco, Stefano (Editor), Keilman, Nico (Editor)
• Format: Electronic Book Chapter
• Language: English
• Published: Springer Nature 2020
• Series: The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis 49
• Subjects: Population & demography; Social research & statistics; Demography; Statistics for Social Sciences, Humanities, Law; Population and Demography; Statistics in Social Sciences, Humanities, Law, Education, Behavorial Sciences, Public Policy; Population forecasting; Fertility; Mortality; Migration; Forecasting evaluation; Social Media data; Population statistics; Population modelling; Bayesian population models; Open access
• Online Access: OAPEN Library: download the publication; OAPEN Library: description of the publication

This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.