TRANSMISI KEBIJAKAN MONETER TERHADAP INFLASI DAN SEKTOR RIIL DALAM SISTEM MONETER GANDA DI INDONESIA

• Main Author: Adelia Novianti, - (Author)
• Format: Book
• Published: 2019-12-26.
• Subjects: Thesis; NonPeerReviewed
• Online Access: Link Metadata
• Notes: http://repository.upi.edu/46084/1/S_EKI_1503564_Title.pdf; http://repository.upi.edu/46084/2/S_EKI_1503564_Chapter1.pdf; http://repository.upi.edu/46084/3/S_EKI_1503564_Chapter2.pdf; http://repository.upi.edu/46084/4/S_EKI_1503564_Chapter3.pdf; http://repository.upi.edu/46084/5/S_EKI_1503564_Chapter4.pdf; http://repository.upi.edu/46084/6/S_EKI_1503564_Chapter5.pdf; http://repository.upi.edu/46084/7/S_EKI_1503564_Appendix.pdf
• Keywords: H Social Sciences (General); HB Economic Theory; HC Economic History and Conditions

Penelitian bertujuan untuk mengindentifikasi transmisi kebijakan moneter syariah dan konvensional melalui jalur suku bunga, jalur kredit, dan jalur nilai tukar terhadap inflasi dan pertumbuhan sektor riil di Indonesia menggunakan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Estimasi VECM menunjukkan semua variabel dalam jangka pendek tidak berpengaruh terhadap inflasi dan sektor riil. Hasil Impulse-Response Function (IRF) menunjukkan semua variabel dalam model mampu menstabilkan tingkat inflasi dalam waktu tiga hingga tujuh bulan, sedangkan untuk menstabilkan pertumbuhan sektor riil dibutuhkan empat hingga delapan bulan. Hasil Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) menunjukkan CRED paling besar memengaruhi inflasi, adapun SBI menjadi variabel yang paling besar memengaruhi sektor riil. Instrumen moneter syariah memegang peran besar dalam mengendalikan inflasi dan menumbuhkan sektor riil, namun pengaruhnya tidak sebesar instrumen moneter konvensional. Sehingga otoritas terkait diharapkan dapat mengembangkan lebih banyak instrumen moneter syariah berbasis sektor riil yang didasari underlying asset agar mampu menguatkan pengaruhnya terhadap inflasi dan sektor riil. The research aims to identify the transmission of sharia and conventional monetary policies through the interest rate channel, credit channel, and exchange rate channel to inflation and real sector growth in Indonesia using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). VECM estimates show that all variables in the short run have no effect on inflation and the real sector. The Impulse-Response Function (IRF) results show that all variables in the model are able to stabilize the inflation rate within three to seven months, while to stabilize the growth of the real sector it takes four to eight months. Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) results show that CRED has the most influence on inflation, while SBI is the biggest variable affecting the real sector. Islamic monetary instruments play a large role in controlling inflation and growing the real sector, but the effect is not as large as conventional monetary instruments. So that the related authorities are expected to be able to develop more sharia monetary instruments based on the real sector based on underlying assets in order to be able to strengthen their influence on inflation and the real sector.