Epidemic forecasts as a tool for public health: interpretation and (re)calibration

• Main Authors: Robert Moss (Author), James E. Fielding (Author), Lucinda J. Franklin (Author), Nicola Stephens (Author), Jodie McVernon (Author), Peter Dawson (Author), James M. McCaw (Author)
• Format: Book
• Published: Elsevier, 2018-02-01T00:00:00Z.
• Subjects: article
• Online Access: Connect to this object online.

Abstract Objective: Recent studies have used Bayesian methods to predict timing of influenza epidemics many weeks in advance, but there is no documented evaluation of how such forecasts might support the day‐to‐day operations of public health staff. Methods: During the 2015 influenza season in Melbo...