Assessment of epidemic projections using recent HIV survey data in South Africa: a validation analysis of ten mathematical models of HIV epidemiology in the antiretroviral therapy era

• Main Authors: Dr. Jeffrey W Eaton, PhD (Author), Nicolas Bacaër, PhD (Author), Anna Bershteyn, PhD (Author), Valentina Cambiano, PhD (Author), Anne Cori, PhD (Author), Prof. Rob E Dorrington, MPhil (Author), Prof. Christophe Fraser, PhD (Author), Chaitra Gopalappa, PhD (Author), Jan A C Hontelez, PhD (Author), Leigh F Johnson, PhD (Author), Daniel J Klein, PhD (Author), Prof. Andrew N Phillips, PhD (Author), Carel Pretorius, PhD (Author), John Stover, MA (Author), Prof. Thomas M Rehle, MD (Author), Prof. Timothy B Hallett, PhD (Author)
• Format: Book
• Published: Elsevier, 2015-10-01T00:00:00Z.
• Subjects: article
• Online Access: Connect to this object online.

Background: Mathematical models are widely used to simulate the effects of interventions to control HIV and to project future epidemiological trends and resource needs. We aimed to validate past model projections against data from a large household survey done in South Africa in 2012. Methods: We co...