Short-term Forecasting of the Prevalence of Trachoma: Expert Opinion, Statistical Regression, versus Transmission Models.

• Main Authors: Fengchen Liu (Author), Travis C Porco (Author), Abdou Amza (Author), Boubacar Kadri (Author), Baido Nassirou (Author), Sheila K West (Author), Robin L Bailey (Author), Jeremy D Keenan (Author), Anthony W Solomon (Author), Paul M Emerson (Author), Manoj Gambhir (Author), Thomas M Lietman (Author)
• Format: Book
• Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2015-08-01T00:00:00Z.
• Subjects: article
• Online Access: Connect to this object online.

BACKGROUND:Trachoma programs rely on guidelines made in large part using expert opinion of what will happen with and without intervention. Large community-randomized trials offer an opportunity to actually compare forecasting methods in a masked fashion. METHODS:The Program for the Rapid Elimination...